A Paradoxical Relationship
China has discarded ‘Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai’ in history’s dustbin. Chinese hackers targeted Indian missions, servers, the Dalai Lama’s office and Tibetan exiles. In 2010, researchers at the University of Toronto discovered a cyber network which had stolen classified information about Indian missile systems, local security, and diplomatic communication about India’s policy in West Africa, Russia and the Middle East, Afghanistan and NATO. “Structural fault lines in the India-China dynamic will continue to ensure that the relationship remains competitive. While there is a significant power asymmetry between India and China today, both are also experiencing simultaneous rise.
Both sides have greater capacity today than at any point since they emerged as modern nation-states in the late 1940s. At the same time, both sides also have coinciding and expanding circles of interests, which lead to new sources of friction,” says Kewalramani, whose book, Smokeless War: China’s Quest for Geopolitical Dominance, will be published soon. In the Xi-Modi equation, both are vying for psychological dominance. Some believe the Chinese leader has the upper hand. “To put China’s aggressive moves into the old pattern of ‘hegemonic China’ does not explain anything.
The Western media is debating a real possibility of the Wuhan lab virus leak theory
As to how Modi completely misread Xi will always remain one of the permanent enigmas of our foreign policy disasters,” says a retired officer from one of India’s security agencies. Sitting on a swing on the banks of the Sabarmati River in September 2014, flush with his electoral victory, Modi is described by a writer as looking deep into Xi’s eyes and commenting, “This was not expected of your country. Can you tell me when the troops are withdrawing?” As they sipped tea together, 1,000 Chinese soldiers crossed the LAC in Southern Ladakh. Xi did not respond to Modi’s questions on the border issue during his China visit in 2015. He left it to Premier Li Keqiang to inform Modi that it was a “complex issue left over from history” and required “patience”.
After negotiating a mutual pull-back, the PLA entered the disputed Doklam bowl to which Modi did not react. At the 2018 Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore attended by Xi, Modi warned against a “return to the age of great power rivalries,” in the Indo-Pacific, an issue close to Xi’s heart. He believes Modi has been subdued. The Indian PM is keeping his own counsel. “What Beijing is keen on doing is to show up India’s all-round helplessness. And how as an inherently weak and vacillating power, which has outsourced its strategic security to the US and saddled with a plunging economy, India is in no position whatsoever to provide countries in southern Asia and Southeast Asia either military assistance and support or, even less, trade, technology, infrastructure and economic development—all of which China can readily offer,” says Bharat Karnad, national security expert and Emeritus Professor for National Security Studies, Centre for Policy Research, Delhi.
After the Dalgliesh-Sorenson paper went public, the ever pragmatic Xi said that China must “be open and confident, but also modest and humble”. Successful empires are built as much on treachery as on good faith. The Wuhan viral leak shows a man not afraid to take risks to conquer the world. Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty is considered one of the greatest emperors who ushered in China’s Golden Age in the sixth century AD. He launched a new dynasty, reorganised and strengthened his army, put down revolts and annexed territory. Unlike Xi, Taizong was open to criticism and tolerant. He was also a renowned calligrapher. Xi has chosen the brush to paint China in his own form. The world is watching his strokes becoming clearer by the day in the light of his unbridled ambition.
Gain-of-function research alters the transmissibility, virulence and immunogenicity of a target virus. For example, the H1N1 influenza virus will affect humans but its mutation could jump to another host—which is what probably happened at the Wuhan laboratory. The purpose of Gain-of-function research is to study how pandemics affect humanity, anticipate possible mutations in currently known viruses, identify when they occur and to prepare medical treatment like vaccines and drugs in advance. In an ideal world, it allows governments to execute better disease control measures, and speed up research for potential vaccines and treatments. Gene editing technology such as CRISPR is commonly used by medical scientists to make alterations in the genetic code of the pathogen.
Viruses replicate very fast. Without proper intervention, they will mutate, lowering the efficacy of natural or vaccine-induced antibodies. Early studies suggest that the mutation in the coronavirus spike protein enhances the virus’s potency and enables it to evade serum antibodies of recovered Covid-19 patients. If there are no models of a particular human pathogen to study, Gain-of-function researchers must generate a new infective strain in a laboratory. They do this by passing the virus through an animal—in Wuhan’s case the bats—and thereafter test potential vaccine candidates.
A previous controversy centered around the genetic modification of the A/H5N1 virus in ferrets to make an airborne virus that can infect the animals. Researchers conclusively demonstrated that an altered version of a non-airborne virus can be spread through air. They could also anticipate antiviral drug combinations to treat the disease. However, the mutation must occur in the manner it is predicted in the lab for effective future treatment. How an altered virus affects ferrets may not be the same in other species. All the research proves is that viruses can be transferred from animals to humans. The possibility of accidental or intentional release of an altered virus caused the Obama administration to halt funding for Gain-of-function research related to influenza, SARS, or MERS in 2014. The ban has since been rolled back.
THE WORLD DOMINATION BLUEPRINT
THE LEGEND
Xi Jinping has attained mythical status in his country. The China vs the Rest policy has evoked strong nationalism, which gives him the support he needs at home to further his agenda. Xi’s absolute control over the Party allows him to push his foreign policy forward without hindrance.
ONE WORLD ONE DREAM
Xi works on the Chinese historical assumption that it will subjugate and unite all countries to be ruled by one emperor. Xi sees himself as the Son of Heaven as the Chinese emperor was called. Disregarding international law, China has established military bases in the South China Sea, directly challenging US Naval power.
FORGING SECONDARY ALLIANCES
Through BRI, Xi will make China resource-competent and geopolitically powerful in Asia, Russia and Europe, the Middle East and the South Pacific. Xi will create more employment and resuscitate debt-ridden state-owned companies through creating new markets through BRI.
WEAPONISING CREDIT
Xi has given massive development loans to countries in South Asia and Europe, which have mismanaged or corrupt governments. China seizes strategic assets when they don’t repay the loans. In Africa, where China has no geopolitical interests presently, Xi does not insist in repayment as he gathers future goodwill as long-term investment.
Xi wants Chinese economy to determine world affairs. To change the liberal world order that favours pro-democracy economics, China promises unconditonal credit to resource-rich, strategic countries that disregard basic human rights and democracy. This alters the market balance, changes policy and forces Western nations to negotiate terms favourable to China. It uses membership of WTO, WHO etc to push its agenda.
SHARP POWER DOCTRINE
China could become the world’s most powerful economic force by 2049. Using “sharp power”, Xi manipulates and co-opts culture, education systems, and media. He runs an authoritarian regime at home and subverts the political atmosphere in democracies.
ESPIONAGE AND PROPAGANDA
Members of the Communist Party of China have infiltrated Western governments, mega corporations and diplomatic missions. They report directly to Xi. China started cultural bodies with opaque funding. It offers endowments to Western universities to infleunce academia. Its hackers access classified data of foreign governments, including India.
DROPPING SOFT POWER
Xi has taken an aggressive and expansionist stand, Hong King becme a police state and Taiwan is being targeted for invasion. Wolf Warrior diplomat is taking on Western anti-China opinion through savage rhetoric and lobbying. Xi excels in psychological warfare by ignoring foreign leaders: forcing them on the back foot even if China is wrong —what Beijing wants Beijing gets.
MODERNISING MILITARY
Xi cut the PLA’s flab and multi-chain commands, and increased the budget of the Army. His emphasis is on state-of-the-art technology—aircraft, nuclear submarines, missile technology, cyber warfare and AI. The reach of the Chinese Navy and missile systems is intimidating.
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